Predictors of undiagnosed prevalent type 2 diabetes - The Danish General Suburban Population Study.

To investigate how self-reported risk factors (including socioeconomic status) predict undiagnosed, prevalent type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). To externally validate Leicester Risk Assessment Score (LRAS), Finnish Diabetes Risk Score (FINDRISC) and Danish Diabetes Risk Score (DDRS), and to investigate how these predict a European Heart SCORE≥5% in a Danish population study. We included 21,205 adults from the Danish General Suburban Population Study. We used relative importance calculations of self-reported variables in prediction of undiagnosed T2DM. We externally validated established prediction models reporting ROC-curves for undiagnosed T2DM, pre-diabetes and SCORE. More than 20% of people with T2DM were undiagnosed. The 7 most important self-rated predictors in sequential order were high BMI, antihypertensive-therapy, age, cardiovascular disease, waist-circumference, fitness compared to peers and family disposition for T2DM. The Area Under the Curve for prediction of undiagnosed T2DM was 77.1 for LRAS; 75.4 for DDRS and 67.9 for FINDRISC. AUCs for SCORE was 75.1 for LRAS; 62.3 for DDRS and 54.3 for FINDRISC. BMI and self-reported cardiovascular disease are important risk factors for undiagnosed T2DM. LRAS performed better than DDRS and FINDRISC in prediction of undiagnosed T2DM and SCORE≥5%. SCORE performed best in predicting pre-diabetes. Copyright © 2017 Primary Care Diabetes Europe. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Citation

Andreas Heltberg, John Sahl Andersen, Håkon Sandholdt, Volkert Siersma, Jakob Kragstrup, Christina Ellervik. Predictors of undiagnosed prevalent type 2 diabetes - The Danish General Suburban Population Study. Primary care diabetes. 2017 Sep 27

PMID: 28964672

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