Proteinuria and serum creatinine after 12 months of treatment for lupus nephritis as predictors of long-term renal outcome: a case-control study.

Advances in rheumatology (London, England) 2022 Jan 04

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Lupus nephritis (LN) is a major source of morbidity and mortality in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE), with 10-25% of patients progressing to end-stage renal disease (ESRD). This study aims to elucidate the predictive capabilities of 24-h proteinuria (24PTU) and serum creatinine (sCr) after 12 months of treatment with respect to long-term renal outcomes in LN in a single-center cohort of LN patients. A retrospective analysis was performed on 214 patients diagnosed with LN followed in our center. Values of 24PTU and sCr were assessed at baseline and after 3, 6 and 12 months, and after 5 years and/or the last evaluation. Chronic kidney disease (CKD) was defined as an estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) < 60 mL/min/1.73 m2 for 3 months or longer. End-stage renal disease (ESRD) was defined as the need for permanent dialysis. Receiver operating characteristics curves (ROC) were used to test the best cut-off value of 24PTU and sCr at 12 months who predict bad long-term renal outcomes. RESULTS: The mean follow-up period was 11.2 ± 7.2 years. The best cut-off values for 24PTU and sCr as predictor of CKD were, respectively, 0.9 g/24 h and 0.9 mg/dL. ROC curve for 24PTU had a slightly lower performance than ROC curve for sCr as predictor for CKD (PTU AUC = 0.68; sCr AUC = 0.70), but sensitivity and specificity were better for 24PTU (24PTU: sensitivity = 63.5%, specificity = 71.2%; sCr: sensitivity = 54.8%, specificity = 75.3%). When the outcome was ESRD the best cut-off points were 0.9 g/24hs and 1.3 mg/dL for 24PTU and sCr, respectively, and the curve performance was better for 24PTU (PTU AUC = 0.72; sCr AUC = 0.61). In this ethnically diverse population with LN followed for a long time (> 10 years), levels of 24PTU > 0.9/day at 12 months was a good predictor of bad long-term renal outcome. The serum creatinine > 0.9 mg/dL and > 1.3 mg/dL at 12 months were also good predictors of CKD and ESRD, respectively. Patients with 24PTU < 0.9 g/day and sCr < 1.3 mg/dL at 12 months are not likely to develop ESRD because of the high negative predictive values (NPV) (93.2% and 82%). 24PTU and sCr are relevant as components for a treat-to-target strategy for LN treatment, since their high NPV corroborates their importance as good predictors of long-term renal outcome. © 2021. The Author(s).

Citation

Fernanda Nogueira Holanda Ferreira Braga, Marta Maria das Chagas Medeiros, Antonio Brazil Viana Junior, Matheus Eugênio de Sousa Lima, Levi Coelho Maia Barros, Marcelo Ximenes Pontes, Allysson Wosley de Sousa Lima, Paula Frassinetti Castelo Branco Camurça Fernandes. Proteinuria and serum creatinine after 12 months of treatment for lupus nephritis as predictors of long-term renal outcome: a case-control study. Advances in rheumatology (London, England). 2022 Jan 04;62(1):2