A novel prediction model to evaluate the probability of CD4+/CD8+ cell ratio restoration in HIV-infected individuals.

Our study aimed to develop a clinical prediction model to evaluate the possibility of CD4+/CD8+ ratio restoration in HIV-positive individuals. About 1980, HIV/AIDS patients initiated with antiretroviral treatment from 1 January 2013, to 30 December 2016, at Beijing Ditan Hospital and achieved persistent virological suppression during the 4 years follow-up were included in this study. Multivariate Cox proportional regression analysis was used to identify the independent risk factors and establish a predictive model. The model's performance was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic and calibration plots. Overall, after 4 years of treatment, a total of 455 individuals (22.98%) restored their CD4+/CD8+ ratio (≥1). The area under the receiver operating characteristic was 0.782 and 0.743 in the deriving and validation cohort, respectively. The ultimate model included five indexes: age at AIDS diagnosis, albumin, and syphilis status, and baseline CD4+ and CD8+ values. A nomogram further visualized the model, and the calibration plots indicated high agreement of predicted and observed outcomes. Our prediction model might be practical and easily applied to recognize HIV/AIDS individuals most likely to benefit from modern antiretroviral therapy. Copyright © 2022 The Author(s). Published by Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc.

Citation

Bei Li, Leidan Zhang, Ying Liu, Jing Xiao, Cuilin Li, Lina Fan, Yujiao Duan, Jiang Xiao, Yu Hao, Junyan Han, Yaxian Kong, Hongxin Zhao. A novel prediction model to evaluate the probability of CD4+/CD8+ cell ratio restoration in HIV-infected individuals. AIDS (London, England). 2022 May 01;36(6):795-804

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PMID: 35013083

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