Modeling on the Effects of Deliberate Release of Aerosolized Inhalational Bacillus anthracis (Anthrax) on an Australian Population.

Valentina Costantino, Prateek Bahl, Con Doolan, Charitha de Silva, David Heslop, Xin Chen, Samsung Lim, Chandini Raina MacIntyre

Health security 2023 Jan-Feb

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This study aimed to determine optimal mitigation strategies in the event of an aerosolized attack with Bacillus anthracis, a category A bioterrorism agent with a case fatality rate of nearly 100% if inhaled and untreated. To simulate the effect of an anthrax attack, we used a plume dispersion model for Sydney, Australia, accounting for weather conditions. We determined the radius of exposure in different sizes of attack scenarios by spore quantity released per second. Estimations of different spore concentrations were then used to calculate the exposed population to inform a Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) deterministic mathematical model. Results are shown as estimates of the total number of exposed and infected people, along with the burden of disease, to quantify the amount of vaccination and antibiotics doses needed for stockpiles. For the worst-case scenario, over 500,000 people could be exposed and over 300,000 infected. The number of deaths depends closely on timing to start postexposure prophylaxis. Vaccination used as a postexposure prophylaxis in conjunction with antibiotics is the most effective mitigation strategy to reduce deaths after an aerosolized attack and is more effective when the response starts early (2 days after release) and has high adherence, while it makes only a small difference when started late (after 10 days).

Citation

Valentina Costantino, Prateek Bahl, Con Doolan, Charitha de Silva, David Heslop, Xin Chen, Samsung Lim, Chandini Raina MacIntyre. Modeling on the Effects of Deliberate Release of Aerosolized Inhalational Bacillus anthracis (Anthrax) on an Australian Population. Health security. 2023 Jan-Feb;21(1):61-69