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    Effective delirium prevention could benefit from automatic risk stratification of older inpatients using routinely collected clinical data.Primary aim was to develop and validate a delirium prediction model (DELIKT) suitable for implementation in hospitals. Secondary aim was to select an anticholinergic burden scale as a predictor.We used one cohort for model development and another for validation with electronically available data collected within the first 24 h of admission. Included were patients aged ≥ 65, hospitalised ≥ 48 h with no stay > 24 h in an intensive care unit. Predictors, such as administrative and laboratory variables or an anticholinergic burden scale, were selected using a combination of feature selection filter method and forward/backward selection. The final model was based on logistic regression and the DELIKT was derived from the β-coefficients. We report the following performance measures: area under the curve, sensitivity, specificity and odds ratio.Both cohorts were similar and included over 10,000 patients each (mean age 77.6 ± 7.6 years) with 11% experiencing delirium. The model included nine variables: age, medical department, dementia, hemi-/paraplegia, catheterisation, potassium, creatinine, polypharmacy and the anticholinergic burden measured with the Clinician-rated Anticholinergic Scale (CrAS). The external validation yielded an AUC of 0.795. With a cut-off at 20 points in the DELIKT, we received a sensitivity of 79.7%, specificity of 62.3% and an odds ratio of 5.9 (95% CI 5.2, 6.7).The DELIKT is a potentially automatic tool with predictors from standard care including the CrAS to identify patients at high risk for delirium.© 2023. The Author(s).

    Citation

    Angela E Schulthess-Lisibach, Giulia Gallucci, Valérie Benelli, Ramona Kälin, Sven Schulthess, Marco Cattaneo, Patrick E Beeler, Chantal Csajka, Monika Lutters. Predicting delirium in older non-intensive care unit inpatients: development and validation of the DELIrium risK Tool (DELIKT). International journal of clinical pharmacy. 2023 Apr 15


    PMID: 37061661

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