Multivariable prediction models for the recovery of and claim closure related to post-collision neck pain and associated disorders.

Maja Stupar, Pierre Côté, Linda J Carroll, Robert J Brison, Eleanor Boyle, Heather M Shearer, J David Cassidy

Chiropractic & manual therapies 2023 Aug 25

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Few clinical prediction models are available to clinicians to predict the recovery of patients with post-collision neck pain and associated disorders. We aimed to develop evidence-based clinical prediction models to predict (1) self-reported recovery and (2) insurance claim closure from neck pain and associated disorders (NAD) caused or aggravated by a traffic collision. The selection of potential predictors was informed by a systematic review of the literature. We used Cox regression to build models in an incident cohort of Saskatchewan adults (n = 4923). The models were internally validated using bootstrapping and replicated in participants from a randomized controlled trial conducted in Ontario (n = 340). We used C-statistics to describe predictive ability. Participants from both cohorts (Saskatchewan and Ontario) were similar at baseline. Our prediction model for self-reported recovery included prior traffic-related neck injury claim, expectation of recovery, age, percentage of body in pain, disability, neck pain intensity and headache intensity (C = 0.643; 95% CI 0.634-0.653). The prediction model for claim closure included prior traffic-related neck injury claim, expectation of recovery, age, percentage of body in pain, disability, neck pain intensity, headache intensity and depressive symptoms (C = 0.637; 95% CI 0.629-0.648). We developed prediction models for the recovery and claim closure of NAD caused or aggravated by a traffic collision. Future research needs to focus on improving the predictive ability of the models. © 2023. Chiropractic and Osteopathic College of Australasia, European Academy of Chiropractic, The Royal College of Chiropractors, Nordic Institute of Chiropractic and Clinical Biomechanics and BioMed Central Ltd.

Citation

Maja Stupar, Pierre Côté, Linda J Carroll, Robert J Brison, Eleanor Boyle, Heather M Shearer, J David Cassidy. Multivariable prediction models for the recovery of and claim closure related to post-collision neck pain and associated disorders. Chiropractic & manual therapies. 2023 Aug 25;31(1):32