A novel nomogram for predicting HBeAg seroclearance in HBeAg-positive chronic hepatitis B patients treated with nucleos(t)ide analogues.

Seroclearance of hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg) is an important treatment goal for patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB). This study developed a nomogram for predicting HBeAg seroclearance in CHB patients treated with nucleos(t)ide analogues (NAs). Five hundred and sixty-nine CHB patients treated with NAs from two institutions between July 2016 to November 2021 were retrospectively included. One institution served as the training set (n = 374) and the other as the external validation set (n = 195). A predictive nomogram was established based on cox regression analysis. The overall HBeAg seroclearance rates were 27.3 and 21.5 % after the median follow-up of 100.2 weeks and 65.1 weeks in the training set and validation set, respectively. In the training set, baseline aspartate aminotransferase, gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase, HBeAg, and hepatitis B core antibody levels were independently associated with HBeAg seroclearance and were used to establish the HBEAg SeroClearance (ESC)-nomogram. The calibration curve revealed that the ESC-nomogram had a good agreement with actual observation. The ESC-nomogram showed relatively high accuracy for predicting 48 weeks, 96 weeks, and 144 weeks of HBeAg seroclearance in the training set (AUCs: 0.782, 0.734 and 0.671) and validation set (AUCs: 0.699, 0.718 and 0.689). The patients with high ESC-nomogram scores (≥ 79.51) had significantly higher cumulative incidence of HBeAg seroclearance and seroconversion than patients with low scores (< 79.51) in both sets (P < 0.01). The novel ESC-nomogram showed good performance for predicting antiviral efficacy in HBeAg-positive CHB patients with NAs treatment. Copyright © 2023 Fundación Clínica Médica Sur, A.C. Published by Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Citation

Yan Gu, Yao Zhang, Zhiyi Zhang, Jian Wang, Qing Zhang, Shaoqiu Zhang, Yilin Liu, Jiacheng Liu, Juan Xia, Xiaomin Yan, Jie Li, Xingxiang Liu, Rui Huang, Chao Wu. A novel nomogram for predicting HBeAg seroclearance in HBeAg-positive chronic hepatitis B patients treated with nucleos(t)ide analogues. Annals of hepatology. 2023 Sep 12:101151

PMID: 37704066

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