Development of a nomogram prognostic model for early Grade ≥ 3 infection in newly diagnosed multiple myeloma based on immunoparesis.

Infection, a significant cause of death in multiple myeloma (MM) patients, is a common complication and is closely associated with immunoparesis. There exists no clear definition of early infection, so early infection is defined in this paper as the occurrence within 3 months after diagnosis, considering the high incidence of infections within 3 months after diagnosis. This study established a new nomogram model based on immunoparesis to identify MM patients with high-risk early infection. A retrospective collection of 430 NDMM patients from June 2013 to June 2022 was conducted, and the patients were further divided into a training cohort and a validation cohort. In the training cohort, the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) was used to select the best variables that can be used to establish a new nomogram prediction model. Validation was performed in the validation and entire cohorts. After diagnosis, 67.7 % of the patients suffered from severe infection within 1 year, and 59.5 % experienced the first severe infection within 3 months. Variables associated with an increased risk of severe infection in the first 3 months included: BMPC, D-dimer, serum β2 microglobulin, immunoparesis, albumin, and eGFR. The nomogram based on the above six factors achieved a good C-index of 0.754, 0.73, and 0.731 in predicting early infection in the training cohort, validation cohort, and entire cohort, respectively. Finally, the time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and decision curve analysis (DCA) of the nomogram showed that the model provided superior diagnostic capacity and clinical net benefit. In this study, we established a nomogram model to predict early grade ≥ 3 infection in NDMM patients. This model can assist clinicians in identifying NDMM patients with high-risk infections and improve their prognosis through early intervention. Copyright © 2023. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Citation

Min Zhang, Qianwen Cheng, Fei Zhao, Aoshuang Xu, Qun Li, Yu Hu, Chunyan Sun. Development of a nomogram prognostic model for early Grade ≥ 3 infection in newly diagnosed multiple myeloma based on immunoparesis. International immunopharmacology. 2024 Jan 05;126:111277

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PMID: 38061120

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